Tug-of-War at the 260,000 Threshold for the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract: Myanmar Mine Transportation Disruptions Hedge Against Off-Season Consumption [SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract as of June 9, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) closed at 263,740 yuan/mt, with an intraday gain of 0.31% and a cumulative five-day gain of 5.37%. In the spot market, however, influenced by the off-season in consumption, downstream purchase sentiment remained sluggish, and overall spot transactions were relatively quiet.

​​Rising Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut​​: Although the US May non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, ADP employment growth slowed down, leading to divergent market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut. The US dollar index came under pressure, supporting the prices of non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars.

​​Easing Sino-US Economic and Trade Tensions​​: Positive signals were released during high-level trade consultations between the two countries, alleviating market concerns about adjustments to tariff policies and leading to marginal improvements in macro sentiment.

​​Myanmar's Production Resumptions Fall Short of Expectations​​: Although tin mines in the Wa region resumed production at the end of April, the actual customs clearance volume in May was only 21 mt, and no significant increase is expected in June. Actual capacity releases may be delayed until July-August.

​​Capacity Constraints in the DRC​​: Due to the aftermath of armed conflicts, the Bisie tin mine's capacity releases have been slow. Additionally, Thailand's suspension of transit transportation of tin ore from southern Myanmar has made it difficult to fill the short-term supply gap in ore.

​​Demand Side: Off-Season Characteristics Emerge, Structural Differentiation Persists​​

​​Weakness in Consumer Electronics​​: Orders for terminal electronic products have shrunk, with solder tin enterprises primarily purchasing based on immediate needs and having limited acceptance of high prices.

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